OKLAHOMA CITY, Okla. — Earlier this month, residents of southeast Oklahoma City sustained an outbreak of an EF-3 tornado, leading to concerns that climate change is impacting the strength of tornadoes in the state.
According to the National Weather Service in Norman, there have been 47 tornado warnings in the month of November, which resulted in nine tornados so far.
That number is tied for third most in November and could be broken before the end of the month as NWS investigates other potential tornados.
Winds with speeds of up to 140 mph uprooted neighborhoods, leaving cars overturned in the streets and houses entirely leveled near Southeast 89th and Sooner Road. While these were the strongest tornadoes recorded, other areas in Oklahoma, like Lawton, also experienced tornadoes of varying strengths.
Governor Kevin Stitt issued a state of emergency earlier last week.
Fall tornadoes bring fears of climate change’s impact
Some Oklahomans are worried that this is unusual weather in November and will be the norm. Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Norman, explains that while tornadoes in November are not common, they’re also not unprecedented.
“It’s always unusual to get tornadoes that strong in that number of tornadoes any time of year, but it’s not unheard of to get them during November.”
According to Smith, Oklahoma averages about two tornadoes each November, and past outbreaks—such as one in 2011—demonstrate that significant destructive events can occur outside the typical spring and early fall season.
While the event was unusual for occurring overnight, Dr. Jana Houser, an associate professor of meteorology at Ohio State University, reiterates that tornadoes in late October or early November are common in Oklahoma.
“Tornadoes can and do occur any time of day and any time of year. So it’s good not to let your guard down,” she said. “While tornadoes in the fall are not out of the average, the more uncommon part of this event was that they occurred overnight, especially in Oklahoma.”
Research shows slight decline in Oklahoma destructive tornadoes
Houser explained that the public perception of tornadoes in the region is that they are becoming more frequent, unpredictable and destructive due to climate change. However, data currently does not support this. Her research shows a slight decline in the region’s destructive tornadoes (EF-3 and above) over the past 30 years.
“There’s a little bit of a shift towards more destructive tornadoes as you move towards the southeastern United States and even up into the Midwest,” she said.
The individual tornado events that occurred Sunday and Monday cannot be directly linked to climate change yet. However, according to Houser, a warmer atmosphere creates perfect conditions for severe weather and subtly changes tornado patterns.
“We do see an uptick in the number of tornadoes that are occurring over a given day at the expense of more favorable days,” she said. It’s known as tornado efficiency. “But that has a flip side, which is we are seeing fewer days over the course of the year that actually support tornadoes.”
That makes it so the days that produce tornadoes produce more tornadoes. So what’s going on in the atmosphere? With an increase of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, there is increased heat in the air, which causes more moisture in the air and higher temperatures.
How rising temperatures impact tornado frequency in Oklahoma
According to Houser, with increased temperatures and CO2 in the atmosphere overall, that decreases the difference in temperature between summer and winter months. “That relationship reduces winds in the atmosphere, the ingredient that storms need to become supercells and tornado-producing storms,” she said.
In 2023, the U.S. experienced 28 weather-caused disasters that cost a billion dollars or more. According to NOAA, this year, the country has already experienced 24 billion dollar weather related disasters.
Despite these numbers, scientists hesitate to make direct connections between tornado activity and climate change. While tornadoes in Oklahoma are not unheard of outside peak season, the recent outbreak has raised questions about what residents might expect in the future.
Houser underscores the importance of vigilance, explaining that while climate change contributes to warmer, moisture-rich conditions favorable for storms, it’s not leading to a clear increase in either the frequency or intensity of tornadoes in Oklahoma. Rather, we’re seeing shifts—fewer tornado days, but with more tornadoes when conditions align, she said.
As climate change records continue to be broken, For now, experts caution against drawing direct lines between specific tornadoes and climate change but suggest that Oklahomans remain alert year-round.
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