The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting an above-normal level of activity. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season, with projections of 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes. The agency attributes this prediction to a combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that may make the season more active than usual.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, and while this forecast raises concerns, it is important to note that such predictions are based on models and data with inherent uncertainties. NOAA forecasters expressed 70% confidence in their estimates, leaving room for variation as the season progresses.
Factors Influencing the Forecast
NOAA’s 2024 forecast points to several factors contributing to the anticipated increase in hurricane activity. A key element in the forecast is the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which tend to reduce wind shear, allowing hurricanes to strengthen without interference. Additionally, warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures in the Atlantic basin, particularly in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, may provide energy for storm formation.
The forecast also highlights the possibility of an above-normal west African monsoon, which could give rise to stronger and more frequent African easterly waves that sometimes develop into long-lasting hurricanes. Reduced Atlantic trade winds this season could also allow storms to grow without the usual cooling effects caused by stronger winds.
However, while these natural forces could lead to an increase in storm activity, predictions are not always definitive. NOAA’s projections are based on historical trends and current data, but actual outcomes depend on the evolving dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans.
Communication and Forecasting Tools for 2024
NOAA is introducing a series of tools and technologies aimed at improving the accuracy of hurricane forecasts and communication with the public. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) plans to expand its Spanish-language products, providing critical information to a broader range of communities. This includes Public Advisories, Tropical Cyclone Discussions, and Key Messages for the Atlantic basin.
In an effort to better communicate risks to inland communities, the NHC will experiment with a new version of its forecast cone graphic, which will include inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings. This initiative comes in response to research suggesting that inland communities may not always fully understand the potential hazards posed by hurricanes.
Additionally, the NHC will issue more frequent advisories, providing updates on tropical cyclones, storm surge, and wind conditions as needed. This will enable the NHC to offer more timely information without waiting for the standard six-hour intervals between full advisories.
New Forecasting Models and Observation Technologies
NOAA is also deploying new models and observation technologies for the 2024 season. Two new forecasting models, the Modular Ocean Model (MOM6) and the SDCON model, will focus on improving the representation of the ocean’s role in driving hurricane intensity and predicting rapid storm intensification.
Observation systems will also see upgrades. NOAA will deploy Directional Wave Spectra Drifters (DWSDs) in the tropical Atlantic, providing real-time data on wave and wind conditions during storms. Saildrones, uncrewed surface vehicles that gather storm data, will also be deployed at the start of the hurricane season, offering more detailed insights into storm formation and progression.
Furthermore, underwater gliders will be deployed in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and the eastern U.S. coast to collect data on oceanic conditions that influence hurricane activity. The CHAOS (Coordinated Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Sampling) research experiment will seek to improve understanding of the air-sea interactions that occur during hurricanes.
While these innovations represent significant advancements in hurricane forecasting and preparedness, their effectiveness will only become apparent as they are used during real-world storm events.
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Uncertainties Remain Despite Technological Advancements
Although NOAA’s forecast for the 2024 season suggests an increase in hurricane activity, predicting the exact number, strength, and impact of storms remains challenging. Hurricanes are highly complex systems, and small changes in atmospheric or oceanic conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes.
Sea level rise and other factors linked to human-induced climate change are also playing a role in how hurricanes impact coastal areas. Warmer oceans and rising seas can contribute to more intense storms and exacerbate the damage caused by storm surges. However, the extent to which these factors will influence the 2024 season is still uncertain.
As the hurricane season progresses, NOAA and other agencies will continue monitoring conditions and adjusting their forecasts accordingly.We encourage the public to stay informed and prepare for the possibility of severe weather, especially in coastal areas where hurricanes typically make landfall.
While NOAA has introduced new tools and forecast models, the agency’s predictions—like all seasonal forecasts—come with a degree of uncertainty. The real test of these systems will be how well they perform in a season that could see a range of storm outcomes, from minor disturbances to major hurricanes. For now, communities in hurricane-prone areas should heed the advice of experts and ensure they are prepared for whatever the season may bring.